Publications
Members of Scenario Development have published “Now is the time to focus on Rwanda” in the April 2010 edition of This Is Africa, a Financial Times quarterly publication. The article sets out the rationale to front-end an inquisitive approach to explore the outlook of well-performing countries. A crucial question is whether it is “good planning and policy to only focus on emergencies?” Also, “As a species we tend to discount the future and the risks it holds in stock; the discount rate is even greater if the present looks good and when all partners collaborate. This discount fallacy needs to be addressed in order to ensure that the optimistic goals follow”.
Transatlantic Partners Against AIDS (TPAA is the Russia-based sister organisation of the Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria GBC) have convened a Leaders' Forum to explore the role of Partnerships for health. SD were commissioned to design and conduct a scenario building exercise that is relevant for partnerships in emerging economies. This GBC report ("A Global Consensus on Partnership") highlights some of the scenarios work, and in particular the four scenarios: 1: "Uncontrolled Epidemics"; 2: "President's Plan"; 3: "Global Warning" and 4: "Survival of the Fittest". The full report can be accessed here.
SustainAbility, the think-tank that seeks solutions to social and environmental challenges that deliver long term value, has recently launched its 20th anniversary publication: "Raising our Game". Scenario Development has assisted sustainability to conceptualise the scenarios, and "helped in preparing the ground for the subsequent jump to the four
scenarios outlined" in the report.
Click here to link to the SustainAbility report.
The Interfaith Centre on Corporate Responsibility (ICCR), which advises 275 ethical pension funds with total assets of $110 billion, highlights wide variations in practice between companies and a scarcity of meaningful disclosure in its latest report "Benchmarking AIDS". Patrick Noack of Scenario Development (formerly Strategic Development Consultants), served on the Expert Review Committee of this report.
Read the executive summary (.pdf)
Patrick Noack and Maddalena Campioni, partners of Scenario Development have co-authored the Technical Consultation on Children Affected by HIV and AIDS: Universal Access to Prevention, Treatment and Care. The 3rd Global Partners' Forum on Children affected by HIV and AIDS was, for the first time, preceded by a technical consultation. This is the report of the consultation that brought together 130 representatives from academia, civil society, national governments, donors and the UN. The report makes detailed recommendations under the headings of six key interventions. They will be taken forward by the Inter-Agency Task Team on Children Affected by HIV/AIDS.
please email us for the full report.
Scenario Development are regular contributors to Oxford Analytica publications. The following are electronic version of articles published in Oxford Analytica Daily Briefs:
AIDS modelling (.pdf)
Migration in southern Africa (.pdf)
HIV Prevention (.pdf)
UNAIDS Leadership (Nov 2008) (.pdf)
Climate Scenarios (Jan 2009) (.pdf)
Read the financial publication to which SD have contributed, in collaboration with F&C Asset Management and UBS: "HIV/AIDS Beyond Africa: Managing the Financial Impacts". May 19, 2005.
"This study does not underestimate the extent of the human tragedy relating to HIV/AIDS. Instead, it seeks to focus on the specific effects of the disease on financial markets. While the authors recognise that many companies are tackling HIV/AIDS out of their wish to do the right thing for their employees, this report concentrates on the financial consequences associated with this action" Read the full report (.pdf)
SD members have assisted in mainstreaming HIV/AIDS and contributed to shaping the "human development" chapter of the report of the Blair Commission for Africa, within the DFID Secretariat. Launched in March 2005.
"This year is of great significance for Africa. In 2005 the world will review progress on a remarkable commitment made in 2000. The Millennium Development Goals set out to halve world poverty by 2015. But we are now a third of the way to that date and the rich world is falling behind on its pledges to the poor. Nowhere is that more clear than in Africa, where the world is furthest behind in progress to fulfill those solemn promises. If that is to change we must act now." Read the full report (.pdf)
SD staff were central to the Scenarios Team of the UNAIDS project "AIDS in Africa: Three Scenarios to 2025". Launched in March, 2005.
"This project uses stories rather than projections to explore the future of AIDS in Africa over the next 20 years. Statistics may give a succinct and tragic snapshot of recent events, but they say little of the AIDS epidemic's wider context, or its complex interconnections with other major issues, such as economic development, human security, peace and violence. Statistics can only hint at the future. Indeed, by 2025, no one under the age of 50 in Africa will be able to remember a world without AIDS."
executive summary (.pdf) please email us for the full report.
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