Pandemic Influenza Scenarios Workshop

With the London School of Economics,

Molino Stucky Hilton, Venice Italy, 7-8 December, 2009

SD are running a special policy research workshop in collaboration with Prof Tony Barnett of LSEAIDS, the multidisciplinary department at the London School of Economics.

Pandemic influenza

Influenza spreads globally in epidemics and pandemics. Seasonal epidemics kill hundreds of thousands of people annually, while pandemics kill millions. In the influenza pandemic of 1918 -1919, an estimated 40-100 million people died worldwide.

Human epidemic and pandemic influenza is caused by influenza type A (causes moderate to severe diseases) and type B (causes milder disease and affects primarily children) viruses. The H5N1 virus has been a pandemic threat since 2003 and the H1N1 (so-called "swine flu") most recently. Three conditions or factors are required if an influenza epidemic is to develop into a pandemic: (1) a novel virus; (2) its ability to cause illness, and (3) the ability of the virus to transmit between humans. At present only the final condition is in doubt with regard to the H5N1 virus where person to person transmission seems to have taken place in very few cases under unusual circumstances. A new influenza pandemic will necessarily occur in the future - although not necessarily as a result of the H5N1 virus. Currently a pandemic influenza (PI) epidemic is assessed as the most likely and potentially highest impact risk to the United Kingdom and to many other countries.

This workshop will take pandemic influenza as its focus and provide an opportunity to consider a range of pandemic scenarios and to learn something of the techniques of scenario construction for such events.

This selective workshop is aimed at senior professionals in the private and public sectors and from NGOs. It will guide participants through a methodology of building and using scenarios as well as how to work with existing scenarios. The sessions will be interactive and strengthened by the high-caliber of experienced and skilled participants.

The setting. Venice provides a unique and relevant backdrop to this workshop. Venice was ravaged twice by the bubonic plague, spread to Europe via commerce and trade - an early precursor of globalisation. Some argue that the plague of the 1630s marked the onset of the Venetian downfall.

The workshop will be held at the stunning and recently opened Molino Stucky Hilton on the island of Giudecca affording the best views over Venice. The Hotel offers a complimentary boat service between the Molino Stucy Hilton and Piazza San Marco and Zattere in Venice. This transfer takes about 10 minutes. Scenario Development have negotiated a discounted group rate of approx 175 GBP for a double room at the HIlton. If you would like to avail yourself of this offer, please select the appropriate box on the registration form.

For specific questions, please contact email info@ScenarioDevelopment.com or a.s.barnett@lse.ac.uk