Scenarios for the Future of Rwanda

Rwanda is an extraordinary country from many perspectives. Perhaps the most impressive is the clear vision and determination towards development, technology, democracy and inclusiveness. President Paul Kagame's charisma and leadership (both at home and internationally) to this effect are unquestioned and resolute.

On the other hand, Rwanda's human rights record, its failure to commit to free press and to a strong and vibrant civil society is less glossy than the national development objectives would suggest. Similarly, Rwanda's geopolitical role in the region and in the DRC also requires closer scrutiny and contextualisation in the region.

If anything, the present reality of Rwanda's trajectory into the future is dichotomous: there are evident tensions between the international patina and the national politics, between the human rights record and the constitutional ambitions. Because Kagame if the “new face of african leadership”, Rwanda can be seen as a “tipping point country” for the continent.

Why are scenarios the right approach?

The purpose is not to criticise, undermine or challenge policies, plans, hopes and expectations. Taking cognizance of the fact that the future is uncertain, the benefits of thinking about the future lie in preparedness, better planning, improved strategies, and identification of unexpected areas/outcomes. Scenarios are not about predicting the future, they are about identifying plausible paths to a range of futures which may have to be dealt with, whether we like it or not.

Download our concept note.

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