Frequently Asked Questions
What are scenarios?
Scenarios are a consultative method for constructing plausible futures with the help of experts; they are ‘a way of experiencing the future’. As a result your decisions will be more insightful. You will be better prepared to recognise the opportunities and to understand a changing environment more quickly than your competitors. Armed with this knowledge you will be able to construct more robust and informed strategies.
Scenarios are a planning method for long-term and flexible policy making. They are presented as a scenery resulting from the logical interaction between people and events in a system.
Scenarists generate participatory workshops and simulations for policy makers and decision makers by combining known facts about the future (information) with driving forces (plausible trends).
Everybody needs scenarios as they provide a glance into the future. Scenarios are plausible descriptions of what might happen. They are stories built around carefully constructed plots, based on events and ‘trends’. They assist in the selection of future strategies, they reveal uncertainties opening up lateral thinking and initiating a learning process. Scenarios create a shared mindset between participants focused on possible alternative futures. The participants, contributing to the project will have enormous advantage in understanding and promoting the scenarios. The experts and the readers will also be at an advantage as they will be benefiting from the shared understanding of the subject at hand, they will share a common language, and will be part of a considerable critical mass.
In particular, scenarios are vital for people who want to take part into the decision-making process:
CEOs, Managing directors, business owners, chairpeople growing businesses, venture capitalists Professional advisersPoliticiansDecision makersEconomistsEntrepreneursIn every project there are elements that are difficult to formulate or uncertain, or the entire project has difficulty in creating appropriate buy-in. There may be some subjective interpretations of facts, new regulations or interventions, which are confounding and make it difficult to focus and act.
Sometimes it is the sheer amount of knowledge and information available, which is paralyzing.
Scenario building is a very logical method and can be used for:
Developing clear guidelines to be more efficient and effective Thinking through ideas logically and laterallyHelp focus Expand specific networkCreate common understanding, common language and common groundCreate a critical massModels are based on statistical data which do not take into account other variables: human nature, imagination, power relations, ethics, religion, etc. All these variables are inevitably part of the system and drive reality into the future, but can not be expressed in numbers. Good scenarios should include all the above and more.
Visions are an expression of the imagination of the people formulating them. They are determined by what the people want to achieve, which is not necessarily what is going to happen in the future.
Scenarios will help you understand a range of possible futures, in a consultative manner, by analysing every aspect, including the uncertainties and the unknown, which we are likely to encounter in the future.
Who needs scenarios?
How can scenario building help / enhance my business / project / initiative?
How do scenarios differ from models?
How do they differ from visions?
How about forecasts?
Forecasts are formulated by extending what is known today into the future, almost like a straight line. With so many uncertainties nowadays it is unlikely that things will not change in the future. Even though by nature people don’t like and therefore resist change, it is important to learn how to deal with change and it is through building scenarios that you are better prepared to embrace change.
And strategies?
It is difficult to formulate strategies if you have not fully considered a range of futures, it may be that something which looks good in the short term actually reveals itself to be counterproductive in the long-term.
Because it is not until you know the nature of the problem you are going to encounter that you can possibly be able to plan for it.
Is this the right time to do scenarios?
If there is change you need to understand it and the sooner you prepare for it the better. You need scenarios when there is a period of change but also when things are going well and you want to ensure that they keep on going well, even if the environment changes in the future.
How much does a scenarios exercise cost?
The costs vary enormously and depends on the magnitude and detail of the process. Sometimes in house scenarios projects are more expensive than outsourced projects because of prolonged time involvement of internal staff or lack of extensive experience.
Experienced scenarists know where to optimise costs without compromising on quality.
How long does it take to construct scenarios?
There is quite a variety due to both the choice of the company (smaller companies often work faster than larger competitors) and the size of the project. A small project may vary from 3 months to one year, a larger project may vary between one and two years.
Can SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT (SD) develop a scenario regarding my particular interest/concern?
Members of staff at SD have over 10 years of specific experience in research and development. The projects SD has conducted vary considerably, ranging from science to health, from governance to HIV/AIDS, from sustainability to pandemics, from wellbeing to business, to mention a few. SD has been challenged with a multitude of subjects and being responsibilities; there is almost no field where members at SD will not be able to construct a Scenario project.
This is unlikely. Scenarios have a strong component of human interaction, psychology and imagination, which cannot be transferred electronically as these elements it would be lost.
The interaction, created by the scenario facilitators between the participants and the diverse group of participants, is of paramount importance. This cannot be translated into a computer programme.
Can scenarios building be learned from a CD tutorial?
Why should I use SD rather than other organisations?
The quality is likely to be higher with a specialised company like SD, compared to the product of a large and general company whose core business is not building scenarios.
As scenarios can vary enormously in quality, it is the specific experience which makes the difference. SD is specialised in scenarios processes, therefore the amount of specific experience is considerable. In addition, a specialised company allows for more flexibility, both because of in-depth knowledge of the methodology and because clients are personally and carefully cared for. A specialised company tends to be smaller, ideally minimising overhead costs and reducing time of execution. This is certainly the reality at SD.
SD is able to design tailored projects rather that having a ‘one size fit all’ approach which might be acceptably for other methods but because of the singular nature of scenario would significantly compromise the result.
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